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Update prepared by Michael Voiland, Executive Director, North Carolina Sea Grant.
Any assessment herein is based on best-available information at the time of writing, August 18, 2010.
Media contact: Katie Mosher, 919/515-6069,
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This is an update to my earlier summaries of June 9, June 29 and July 30 regarding the prospects of spilled Gulf of Mexico oil making its way to North Carolina waters.
Many in the media have interpreted and used a report released on August 4 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Incident Command (Federal Science Report Details Fate of Oil From BP Spill) to convey the notion that most of the spilled Gulf Oil is essentially "gone." Many scientists have voiced concern over such assertions.
The Georgia Sea Grant Program has developed the following documents that present a more detailed calculation of what the likely percentage is of total spilled oil residue remaining in the Gulf marine environment:
In short, science-based calculations and educated estimates make a good case for there still being a large amount (approximately 70 to 79 percent) of spilled oil, in various forms, within the Gulf of Mexico's marine ecosystem.
However, on the "good news" front, the large eddy near the center of the Gulf has continued to gyre separately from the Gulf's Loop Current. This situation continues to prevent oil residue from moving through the Loop Current to the Gulf Stream, and thus from being carried to South Atlantic waters.
The longer that oil is detained within the eddy, the more it degrades chemically and physically. No announcement has yet been made by any entity that any submerged oil has left the Gulf via the Loop Current.
You can continue to track the Gulf eddy/Loop Current/Gulf Stream system by going to Ruoying He's website at: http://omglnx6.meas.ncsu.edu/sabgom_nfcast/index.html.
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